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December 25, 2008

Predictions for Google's 2009

1. 10% market share for Google Chrome.

2. Google's search engine will lose a significant amount of market share as Live Search's position will consolidate.

3. Google's Q&A service, used to implement Google help forums, will become a part of Google Apps.

4. GrandCentral will be publicly available in the US and the interface will integrate with Gmail.

5. Google will launch a mobile browser for feature phones and non-Android smart phones.

6. The popular Google Bookmarks service will improve the way you manage bookmarks, by adding hierarchical labels, sharing options and more intuitive visualizations.

7. Google will bring some of the Chrome features to other browsers.

8. Google Translate will be seamlessly integrated with many Google services and applications.

9. Google Reader will list popular posts shared by the community and you'll be able to subscribe to OPML files dynamically (the changes will reflect in your subscription list).

10. Google Maps Live - Google's service will showcase webcams that stream from all around the world, it will include a tab for Google Earth and the most recent custom maps, reviews and map edits from your contacts.

11. Google Contacts will become a separate application, it will offer advanced search and an option to synchronize contacts data.

12. Google's efforts to promote Chrome will change people's perception about Google, which will be increasingly associated with Microsoft.

13. Many high-profile Google employees, including Marissa Mayer, will leave the company.

14. Google Apps will start to be attractive again once the App Engine will be fully released.

15. Personalized search ads for users that are logged in.

16. OneGoogle - a new interface that merges all Google applications so you can quickly switch between Gmail, Google Calendar, Google Docs without opening a new tab or losing your work.

64 comments:

  1. Why do you think Marissa Mayer will leave?

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  2. Gdrive, maybe later, but not in 2009, I dont believe it's strategic at this time.

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  3. What about an Android netbook? how much possible is that

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  4. Pardon the language but were you drunk when you wrote point no 2 ?

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  5. "what about gdrive??"

    You mean 'Platypus'? It's already here: GDocs + Gphotos/Picassa. It's clear that Google made the decision some time ago to channel their online storage efforts in that direction instead of offering a Skydrive-style separate service.

    If you can't do without a 'gdrive' and don't wish to risk giving Microsoft custodianship of your critical data, there's always the GSpace plugin for GMail -- that works perfectly fine.

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  6. No love for Google Notebook eh? That's sad because I use it a lot to get things done. I should be integrated into Google Apps as well since it is already out of "BETA".

    BTW OneGoogle is already around - its called iGoogle "BETA".

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  7. *It should be integrated into Google Apps as well since it is already out of "BETA" I mean.

    Happy holidays btw

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  8. People dont't like Microsoft because its ecosystem is closed to other non Microsoft applications and because they don't really listen to their customers.
    Even bigger, Google will never be assimilited to Microsoft : Google is the opposite of that.

    OneGoogle = iGoogle ???

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  9. If number 11 and 16 came true, it would complete my life.

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  10. And also, yeah iGoogle is basically 'OneGoogle' however, I'd like to see a desktop application with the same basic integrations.

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  11. and what about chrome on linux ? nobody is predicting that ?

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  12. CTI97, Chrome in Linux isn't a prediction. We now they will release a linux and a mac version of it.

    I too am curious why Alex thinks that many high-profile employees will leave Google, and why is M. Mayer mentioned in this?

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  13. About Google Contacts being released as a standalone app, this shouldn't be a prediction because on Google Apps this is already a reality on http://www.google.com/contacts/a/(domain)/.

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  14. To Anonymous asking: "Why do you think Marissa Mayer will leave?"
    Marissa ... we know it's you ;-)

    To Alex, I think that you also forgot that Google will need to put aside the "Do no Evil" motto as we are all facing economical difficulties and that we will see Google downsizing significantly in terms of employees, projects, innovations and more into how to make sure that the company still can make money out of advertising, acquisitions and consolidations... watch the headlines ;-)

    In the meantime, not only we want to see how Google intend to make the Google Social work...but point 16 (OneGoogle) is a very good point to follow closely.

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  15. people are anticipating google to go evil like microsoft and i just don't believe it.
    the way i see it, google is innocent untill proven otherwise, but microsoft has done evil so they are guilty untill proven otherwise.

    I think there are too many idealistic people working at google for them to get away with doing evil. I think google knows this all too well so they won't risk it. that's why i think google won't become evil in 2009 or any other year after.

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  16. Marissa said in a published interview a year or so ago that she only saw herself at Google for a few more years. Google her name and read some to see it. She is getting laid regularly now and soon will have a husband, and maybe even a little genius or two, running around her multi million dollar penthouse.

    We are headed into an economic melt down in the USA. Many high profile (read as high paid) employees will be asked to depart to save money. I am just hoping and praying that the Google applications that I rely on survive and continue to evolve.

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  17. maybe is beter to create login in browser chrome for all google products !!! merry christmas and open mind for gdata :)

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  18. I don't see number 2 happening. Live search is awful and "Google it" has now become a part of people's lives. No matter the search deals that MS makes with OEM's, people will still just "Google it".

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  19. This is a very savvy list in my opinion. I actually agree with point number 2 because I think Facebook will start to promote search in a BIG way in 2009 (how else are they going to get profitable?), which will leverage ... you guessed it, Microsoft Live Search.

    My entire list can be found at Blind Five Year Old:

    http://www.blindfiveyearold.com/2009-internet-and-technology-predictions

    I'll add another that is very Google-centric. Google will leverage Blogger profiles for advertising through 'likes/favorites' targeting. You may even see Google Checkout options so you can buy the favorite movie(s) listed in a Blogger profile directly through that profile.

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  20. 10% market share for a browser in a single year? Definitely unlikely. 3% at most.

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  21. Wish number one: No storage limit on Gmail!!!!!

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  22. Wesley, I tried to get the URL as you suggest and nothing. What is the replace for domain word in it?
    http://www.google.com/contacts/a/(domain)/.

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  23. I usually read articles for the comments, as the writer is usually less informed than the above average commenter. This article is well researched and on point. Thanks.

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  24. "Anonymous", as I said it's available to Google App's users who enabled the service, so (domain) is that domain, you can only see it if you apply for a Google App account.

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  25. What about Google's own operating sistem? Nothing to say?

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  26. I have to agree with Siddy on point 2. Author was very, very drunk.

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  27. "I too am curious why Alex thinks that many high-profile employees will leave Google, and why is M. Mayer mentioned in this?"

    Mostly because working at Google will be less exciting now that many projects are canceled (e.g.: Lively, Google Research Datasets) and Google is more marketing-driven. Marissa Mayer hasn't been very visible lately and I think she'll find some more interesting challenges elsewhere.

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  28. Regarding #2, Microsoft will probably buy Yahoo Search, so its search engine will radically improve. Microsoft has closed or is about to close deals with many computer manufactures and software companies (Dell, HP, Sun, RIM) to bundle MSN Toolbar and to set Live Search as the default search engine.

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  29. Regarding Google Contacts... will they finally allow you to mark portions of a contact "Old" or "No Longer Valid"? If I'm going to be able to keep email forever in Gmail, I need a way to keep the emails associated with a contact long after they abandon an email address, and I don't want that email address to continue appearing as a suggested address as I start typing in the To: box.

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  30. Chrome will never reach 10%.

    Netscape/Mozilla has been around since the academic days of the Internet (1994) and is more popular than ever, it's not going anywhere.

    IE only gained on Netscape because Microsoft forced us to use it (Microsoft is fined 1.4 billion as a result: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7266629.stm) and because Microsoft gave all the ISPs free boxes of Frontpage, the first and only web design program that worked. With Frontpage they could invent their own version of HTML, which is why web designers are stuck with IE for eternity.

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  31. There is no mention of Google Android or Netbooks here?
    Here are my predictions: http://bit.ly/qsOR

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  32. just another comment in response to number 2. Are you on heavy drugs?

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  33. "Marissa Mayer hasn't been very visible lately and I think she'll find some more interesting challenges elsewhere."

    I really hope so. She is an impediment.

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  34. RE: Netscape/Mozilla has been around since the academic days of the Internet (1994) and is more popular than ever, it's not going anywhere.

    A few years ago you could have replaced Mozilla by "Dial up modems". It's not because it's old and popular that it's going to stay popular, let alone better.
    Here is a more realistic view on the subject: Google can pull a lot of people on Chrome just through advertising. And they clearly want lots of people using Chrome.
    Chrome/Chromium uses Webkit, which is tons better than this old, bulky and messy engine Gecko attempts to be. It used to be good, but the codebase is huge and confusing, not many new developers are attracted to it and veteran developers in open source are just that: they always leave at some point.

    Firefox is a great browser, but if they don't change the engine (and they will not), it's not going to keep up the pace.

    I predict 15-18% market share for Chrome/Chromium once the Linux and Mac versions are popular. That's Fall 2009.


    And to the ones saying advertising your browser is against "Do No Evil", please don't be that kind of person. A link to Chrome on the frontpage is no more than a link to Gmail on the frontpage - unlike Microsoft's hard-inclusion of IE in Windows.

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  35. Agree with #2 but disagree with the percentage, it'll be smaller. 10% for Chrome is about right! #3 is already there - check out the Moderator app, you can add it from Google Labs straight to your domain (the future of GApps..blink-blink..the future of GApps). #11 is already there albeit not very sophisticated. #12 is right on!

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  36. 4 6 11 16
    Whoo Hoo!!
    Ben saying they need these for a long time
    Read my post over @ Matt Cutts
    http://www.mattcutts.com/blog/google-feedback/#comment-206319

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  37. I hope that GrandCentral is finally re-opened and expanded upon.

    To say that high-profile Google employees will leave in '09, though...eh...weak. People come and people go, but this prediction -- along with your prediction that a more widely marketed Chrome browser will cause people to associate Google with Microsoft -- is careless. Google doesn't deserve any association with Microsuck.

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  38. http://i44.tinypic.com/oqga3c.png

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  39. I hope that Google takes Cloud Computing to the next level come 2009.

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  40. Shalin Shekhar MangarDecember 26, 2008 at 10:58 PM

    Google Apps and App Engine will be to application developers what Adsense was to publishers.

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  41. hierarchical labels on google bookmarks and notebooks are desperately needed!!

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  42. Personally I would mostly appreciate 11 and 16. Although opening different services in different tabs/windows should obviously be available at the choice of the user in order for the user to afford copying text (looking at information and typing somewhere else). I know I know, Ctrl+C/V for copying etc., but it is useful sometimes to view, for example, a long e-mail in one window, and write the response in another.

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  43. live.com is running a microsoft-funded cashback promotion to try to get people to use it. Example: http://www.xlrforum.com/showthread.php?t=5695

    Personally, I think it will be as successful as the Bob & Ray Piels commercials (sales went up, but anyone who actually drank the stuff can tell you why sales went back down again...)

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  44. The promotions for Live Search will be successful when it will become a good search engine. The easiest way to achieve this would be to buy (or to license) Yahoo Search.

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  45. You guys are really drinking the Koolaid.

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  46. I wonder when, if at all, Google will fix their Maps' broken deployment of microformats?

    They acknowledged the problem in August 2007: http://microformats.org/discuss/mail/microformats-discuss/2007-August/010457.html

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  47. Praying that #11 (google contacts as a stand alone app that syncs) is true.

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  48. oh, i really hope google comes through with the contact manager. that would be ideal!

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  49. Curious about point 2, I searched for some terms on Live. It sucks rocks as always. Sorry Alex, that prediction is so lame it doesn't even merit a response. Other ideas from you are pretty interesting, some even informative! Google sure is on to some cute things.

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  50. I didn't say that the Live Search from today is a good search engine, but Microsoft will buy Yahoo Search, which is an excellent alternative to Google. Microsoft already has deals with many computer manufacturers and it will aggressively promote the "new" search engine. It's more than obvious that Microsoft will increase its market share, considering that it's pretty low (8.5% - October 2008, US, according to comScore).

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  51. I hoped you're right about GrandCentral. I've been waiting a long time for Google to do something--anything!--with this. Gmail integration would be grand--but only if they expand their coverage to the entire country. Alaskans still have no local numbers available.

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  52. Alex

    Microsoft doesn't really need to buy Yahoo search technology since they acquired Pоwerset. Yahoo has nothing but huge traffic, which isn't worth 20 billion.

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  53. Yahoo's search engine is based on acquisitions. Yahoo bought Inktomi and Altavista, two leading search engines before 2000-2001. Powerset only managed to scale its technology to Wikipedia (and Microsoft will only use it for extracting answers/facts), while Yahoo is one of the best two search engines for the web.

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  54. Yawn. Most of this stuff is already out. And seriously, Live Search? Scoff.

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  55. I know I'm late to post.

    But regarding that oneGoogle thing, that's really just iGoogle (being that they're adding Open Social, Google Contacts and Google Talk to the mix).

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  56. I don't know the function of google chrome. anybody could explain it to me, please?

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  57. #4 and #13 have come true with Google Voice release and the exec leaving for AOL.

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  58. Today I check out Statcounter's new "global stats" and they've got G just shy of 90%!

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  59. Why isn't my Google search bringing up a prediction?
    It used to do it!

    I like seeing what was most searched with the letters i type...

    I have a Google toolbar btw




    Thanks Guys!!!

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  60. A lot of top executives left Google this year:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nicholas-carlson/the-google-brain-drain-go_b_283949.html

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